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LEADERSHIP: AVOIDING BLACK-SWAN DISEASE

published:2010-07-26 01:00:00

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best-selling economist and author of The Black Swan, is famous for his arresting insights. His recent postscript to The Black Swan is no exception: presenting ten lessons from the Global Financial Crisis. Above all, he recommends learning from “Mother Nature” – by making our

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LEADERSHIP: FOR SUCCESS – AND HAPPINESS

published:2010-07-19 01:00:00

Like Professor Clayton Christensen, I’ve faced a life threatening cancer and found it a crucible for clarifying my thinking about what’s important. The day

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LEADERSHIP: TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT - BUT HOW?

published:2010-07-13 01:00:00

Due to a backlog of new registrations to work through this Potshot has been delayed by a day. Our apology to our regular readers

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LEADERSHIP: THAT ONE KEY LESSON

published:2010-07-07 01:00:00

How do you rate yourself on the following five actions? Showing self-awareness?. Demonstrating authenticity, integrity and compassion? Understanding and engaging people as

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LEADERSHIP: WHEN GOOD-TO-GREAT IS ONLY LUCK

Chart your own course, seek to excel and be ready to take opportunities when they arise
Don't blindly mimic great leaders or companies, who may not be out of the ordinary at all

Business gurus and their books are full of magic formulae for achieving business and career success.  It's alluring: we all want to succeed.  And, they often clothe their advice in research across hundreds of companies or thousands of leaders.  Very impressive on the surface.  But, at bottom, it's all just another medieval philosopher's stone - promising to transmute stodgy lead into winner's gold.  Lovely words but not for real.  And, all too often, later review will indicate this "great" company has now slipped back, and that exemplary leader has fallen from grace - or, worse, is doing time.  But is there something we can learn here?

Yes, there is.  First, to be a little cynical: so-called evidence often isn't.  And, in our daily lives as leaders, we need to be vigilant in challenging assumptions, logic and data.  Why and how was that sample of "greats" selected?  Is this the only possible conclusion?  Why were those particular years of data included - and not others?

Second, the real merit of these success stories is as fables to reflect on - and draw your own conclusions.  As leaders, we're normally short of reflection time and why this company or that leader got ahead are worthy topics for meditation - and doubly so, if they later lost momentum or collapsed.

This second point is neatly summed up in an article entitled "Are ‘Great' Companies Just Lucky?" (HBR, April 2009). 

http://hbr.harvardbusiness.org/2009/04/are-great-companies-just-lucky/ar/1

After debunking the evidence used in great-company studies, the authors say (by way of analogy): "No one reads ‘The Tortoise and the Hare' and, faced with a chance to bet on such a race, chooses the tortoise.  Rather, people take from this tale the idea that there is merit in perseverance while arrogance can lead to a downfall."

So, if I asked your colleagues, how would they reply to these two questions?

  • Are you crafting your own leadership story - and in what areas and to what extent?  Or, are you emulating what others have done - people you've read about or known - without sufficient reflection?
  • Are you continuing to write new chapters in your story - experimenting with new approaches and ideas that respond to today's reality and your current team?  Or, are you just repeating old stuff?

It would be nice if we could read someone else's strategy and just copy it - to get all the goodies.  But sadly, life isn't like that.  For a start, your environment and challenges are unlikely to be exactly the same as theirs.  So read and reflect.  Don't just read and replicate.

Categories for this Potshot:

Understand your marketplace, Drive strategic rethink, Show self-leadership, HBR articles, Great-leader Potshots, Leadership myths, Career planning,



Dr. Timothy Pascoe AM
PhD (Cambridge), MBA (Harvard), BE & BEc (Adelaide)
Creator, V|E|C|T|O|R Leadership®

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