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LEADERSHIP: AVOIDING BLACK-SWAN DISEASE

published:2010-07-26 01:00:00

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best-selling economist and author of The Black Swan, is famous for his arresting insights. His recent postscript to The Black Swan is no exception: presenting ten lessons from the Global Financial Crisis. Above all, he recommends learning from “Mother Nature” – by making our

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LEADERSHIP: FOR SUCCESS – AND HAPPINESS

published:2010-07-19 01:00:00

Like Professor Clayton Christensen, I’ve faced a life threatening cancer and found it a crucible for clarifying my thinking about what’s important. The day

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LEADERSHIP: TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT - BUT HOW?

published:2010-07-13 01:00:00

Due to a backlog of new registrations to work through this Potshot has been delayed by a day. Our apology to our regular readers

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LEADERSHIP: THAT ONE KEY LESSON

published:2010-07-07 01:00:00

How do you rate yourself on the following five actions? Showing self-awareness?. Demonstrating authenticity, integrity and compassion? Understanding and engaging people as

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LEADERSHIP: BEING UPBEAT IS A CHOICE

Enthuse everyone about the opportunities ahead and how your business can succeed
Don't let them be distracted by negative thinking or feel you lack the desire to win

"Today, it's all about confidence" is a comment I heard this week from a friend, who runs an industry association.  And, he's right.  More than ever, leadership is about having the courage to drive for success.  Market signals are ambiguous.  So, people's conclusions are driven by personal bias.  Bears are super-bearish, and seeking a cave for the economic winter.  While optimists see early signs of growth and are leading their cattle out to the new pasture.  So, how would your team label you: an optimist or a pessimist?  Are you seeking a cave or stepping out?  And, if it's a question of attitude, what can you do?

I love the old saying that optimists aren't right more often than pessimists, they just lead happier lives.  And, having worked with leaders through a number of cycles, I've concluded optimism is always the better bet.  Be courageous - and make your own luck.  And, here are six things to do - and what they deliver.
  • Understand the environment: review the big picture issues re the global slowdown, regional decoupling and stimulus packages.  But also the small picture ones of local credit conditions, rising union pressures and customer confidence.  And, distil the facts.  It's essential to have clarity about what's going on.
  • But, use leading not lagging indicators: unemployment is rising almost everywhere.  Other than insolvency specialists, everyone is shedding staff.  But, unemployment rises late-ish in a downturn.  So, perhaps it's an indicator for bears.  What about the rising factory orders in the US and better purchasing-manager stats. in China.  You need to find the right guides - not just the depressing ones - so you have pointers you can trust.
  • Set goals: don't be caught in the headlights like a frightened rabbit - waiting for competitors to steal your customers.  Think what you can do - where to position your business as things improve; and, how to do it?  Develop your recovery plan.
  • Innovate: smart players use tough times to remodel their operations - cut costs, remove inefficiencies, streamline processes.  That way you enter the upswing with sharper capabilities and better margins.
  • Communicate: a CEO I used to work with was relentless.  In good times and bad, he kept the company's vision and goals in front of his people.  He worked the goals into every conversation: focusing colleagues on the uplands ahead - the desired destination.
  • Be assured: another CEO I knew had a great expression "my people will only feel as good as I look."  And, while realistic about markets and competitors, he was hugely upbeat about what needed to be done.  He believed totally in making your own luck.
My industry-association friend is right.  "Today it's all about confidence."  But I'd go further.  Experience tells me it's always about confidence - and translating that into action.  So, start now!

Categories for this Potshot:

GFC Potshots, Career planning, Understand your marketplace, Monitor and shape change, Define goals and outcomes, Develop plans and actions lists, Embed innovation, Communicate key messages,



Dr. Timothy Pascoe AM
PhD (Cambridge), MBA (Harvard), BE & BEc (Adelaide)
Creator, V|E|C|T|O|R Leadership®

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